Regardless of quite a few acquisitions, the cellular robotic market is in reality not consolidating, and extra corporations pop up annually.
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Regardless of quite a few acquisitions, the cellular robotic market is in reality not consolidating. Extra distributors emerge annually and extra industrial corporations are launching AMRs. The mixed market share of the highest 10 and high 20 main distributors barely modified between 2018 and 2020 and certainly dropped in 2021. Over the previous six years of researching this trade, we persistently establish new gamers (each start-ups and present corporations from adjoining markets that now supply AMRs).
Fragmentation
Given the dramatic development charges and big variance in regional and vertical trade efficiency, additional fragmentation of the provider base appears to be like possible – particularly when contemplating the massive variety of present distributors and the continuous emergence of recent ones. As proven within the determine beneath, the highest 10 distributors of cellular robots, captured simply 36% of complete trade revenues in 2021. Evaluate this to the extra mature industrial robotic market and there the highest 10 distributors take pleasure in a 73% mixed market share. The identical determine for collaborative robotic arms is even greater, at almost 85%.
Begin-Ups Develop Up
Most of the AMR start-ups from yester-year are actually producing important revenues (>$20m) having efficiently expanded on pilots performed in earlier years. US-based Locus Robotics grew to become the trade’s first “unicorn” being valued at over $1bn following its $150m fund-raising spherical shut to 2 years in the past. Chinese language rival, Geek+ has lengthy been rumored to be planning its IPO (maybe when trade and macro situations enhance), additional highlighting how far these once-start-ups have come.
The marginally extra established gamers have additionally seen their companies develop to the subsequent degree. Having significantly expanded their buyer and distribution bases, they’re benefiting from prospects putting in bigger numbers of AMRs because the know-how turns into extra confirmed.
Vendor Efficiency Varies Vastly
A part of the rationale that the trade just isn’t but consolidating is the truth that “cellular automation” captures a large number of robotic varieties, industries and functions. From automated tugger trains on automotive manufacturing strains, by to cellular manipulators choosing particular person objects in a success heart. As such, vendor efficiency varies vastly, and sometimes has little to do with their technique, product or efficiency however extra to do with driving the waves of their trade sector.
Total income development charges for distributors ranged from ~150% to detrimental 50% in 2021. How a vendor carried out was largely linked to the primary finish industries and areas they have been uncovered to in addition to the kind(s) of cellular robotic they provide.
What does the Future Maintain?
Main trade consolidation seems unlikely within the subsequent 2-3 years. Nonetheless, given the present financial surroundings and curiosity in cellular automation, it’s possible a few of the smaller gamers will attempt to ‘money of their chips’. On the identical time, we’re additionally more likely to see much more distributors emerge over the approaching years. The online outcome will possible be neither consolidation nor additional fragmentation.
Some excessive profile and main AMR distributors have been acquired prior to now two years (notably Fetch Robotics and ASTI Cell Robotics). Nonetheless, each have been acquired by corporations with out an present cellular robotic portfolio, so this didn’t assist consolidate or focus market revenues. There have been examples of cellular robotic corporations buying each other. In September 2021, Locus Robotics acquired Waypoint Robotics. And late final yr Teradyne introduced the merger of its two cellular robotic acquisitions (MiR and AutoGuide). At first look, this will likely point out market consolidation, however on nearer inspection, it reveals this M&A exercise was considerably insignificant as AutoGuide and Waypoint mixed accounted for lower than 1% of complete trade revenues on the level of acquisition.
Future acquisitions look possible, significantly from industrial corporations wishing to capitalize on the excessive development and margins seen within the cellular automation sector. Nonetheless, our expectation is that this could come from corporations not already energetic throughout the sector.
Different potential consumers may very well be retailers or logistics corporations (a lá Amazon/Kiva) or bigger warehouse automation system integrators (the likes of Dematic or Honeywell Intelligrated). However in our opinion that appears unlikely and unwise presently. With so many various cellular robotic distributors and applied sciences on the market, buying a single AMR firm right this moment brings little worth and places all their eggs in a single basket. As a substitute, it might be much better for a retailer or logistics firm to have the ability to purchase from a number of robotic corporations, selecting the best-in-breed for the duty at hand. Related for a system integrator, it might be way more compelling to have the ability to supply its prospects the know-how from a number of robotic distributors (assuming they will get distribution agreements) quite than from a single one it had acquired.
In fact, having the ability to reap the benefits of utilizing AMR applied sciences from a number of distributors does include its personal challenges – most notably blended fleet orchestration. However that’s one other matter completely!
Editor’s Observe: This story was initially printed by Work together Evaluation and was reprinted with permission.
